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The Rosin Bag: Emerging From The Madness

Wednesday, August 05th, 2009 | Author: Ottawa Sports Guy
Gut tells me Roy starts next season as a Jay

Gut tells me Roy starts next season as a Jay

Wondering why I’ve been quiet?

To be honest, I lost a whole lot of respect for the sports media, both mainstream and blogger-based, over the past month. The whole Halladay Fiasco turned some of the reporters and commentators I respected most into TMZ-style Twitter-twits, one long stream of consciousness with little intelligent opinion or fact-based reporting.  As usual, though, Stephen Brunt was above this rabble, injecting sanity at key moments.

And so I decided to take a break. It’s not like I have a huge readership, or that my “voice” actually matters, but refraining from adding to the madness allowed me to be at peace with my opinions, which I had shared right when Ken Rosenthal “broke” his “story”. To wit: Roy Halladay was going nowhere, JP was bound by his job description to listen to offers, which is all he said (at first). How that little comment turned into a full-blown media shit-hurricane can be attributed to bored columnists and our society’s transient needs.

The whole episode can be recapped thusly: GM says he’ll listen to offers because that’s what GM’s do; GM would need to be blown away by an offer; such an offer was not forthcoming; Halladay is still a Blue Jay. If you were out of the country for the past month, that’s all you need to know. You’re welcome.

Almost lost in all of this is the fact that Scott Rolen is no longer with the team. According to some reports he wanted out to be close to the Mid-West. Despite the loss of one of my favourite Jays players (Fossil Fries please!), the Jays apparently did very well in the trade, getting a 3rd baseman in Edwin Encarnacion who with a little bit of defensive tweaking might grow into an everyday player, plus two pitching prospects with live arms.

But here’s what I’m looking at as objectively as I can: Supposing Halladay sticks around through the winter, the Jays (who are definitely out of it this year) are looking at an opening day rotation of Doc, Shaun Marcum, Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil and a fifth pitcher who could be any one of Scott Richmond, Jesse Litsch, Brad Mills, Mark Rzepcynski, Brian Tallet, Rob Ray, David Purcey or maybe (MAYBE) Dustin McGowan. Talk about depth in starting pitching.

Cecil and Romero, both rookies, are rounding into fantastic starters. Cecil is 5-1 with a 4.36 ERA and Romero is 10-4 with a 3.53 ERA. If you need any kind of incentive to tune into Jays games for the rest of the season, these two kids are good candidates.

Then take a look at Travis Snider, who just won the PCL’s Player of the Week award, and you can take a deep breath. Ok, Snider is finding his swing again. Maybe he can take over for Lind in left and in turn Lind can assume his natural DH spot (talk about a backhanded compliment!).

Maybe in a perfect world the Jays trade Alex Rios in the offseason and turn the page on this disaster. Vernon Wells is staying, kids, so might as well accept it and move on. One question I do have though: with lots of columnists musing that teams who were interested in Alex Rios would have moved him to his natural position of centre field, and considering how terrible Wells has been (one SABR-estimate a few weeks ago had him costing the Jays 28 runs with his defence up to that point in the season), why not switch them up? Put Rios in centre, and Wells in right! All you’re hurting is Wells’ ego and maybe in doing so Rios gets a psychological boost?

Anyway, the point is, it’s easy to get real down about how this season has turned out, especially considering the circus the media just concocted for us. Take a step back, breathe, and you’ll see that things ARE lining up for a run in 2010.

Sure there are question marks (3rd base, Scutaro leaving after the season), but name me a team that doesn’t have any of those?

The Rosin Bag: Sportsnet’s Most Anticipated Game

Tuesday, May 12th, 2009 | Author: Ottawa Sports Guy
Warm, fuzzy feelings no more

Warm, fuzzy feelings no more

According to Sporsnet I’m supposed to feel stoked about tonight’s matchup between Roy Halladay and his former understudy douchebag A.J. Burnett. Don’t worry, I am quite excited about the game, but like I’ve already mentioned I think Sportsnet went over the top by promoting it as the most anticipated game of the season. I’ll simply add a caveat: it’s the most anticipated game of the season that we know of. The hope here is that the most anticipated games of the season will come in September and, dare to dream, October.

A.J. coming back to Toronto is good enough on its own, even if he had been facing Brian Tallet or Scott Richmond. But the fact that he’s facing his former “mentor”, the man who is credited with nurturing A.J. into a mature human being – well, now you’ve got something.

Burnett has shown that when he wants to (like, you know, in a contract year), he can be one of the best in baseball. Halladay has shown that when he wants to (like, you know, every fucking time he takes the mound), he is the best in baseball. My guess is A.J. will want a win tonight more than any single game in which he’s pitched. He’ll be greeted with a chorus of boos, pitching against former teammates (some of whom don’t like him very much). In my darkest, deepest fantasies he throws at Scott Rolen’s head, who charges the mound and shoves a mammoth burger and fossil fries down his throat before giving A.J. something to really hurt about. For those in need of a refresher on what I just alluded to, here’s a quote from J.P. Ricciardi about A.J. two years ago:

We just need to find a way to keep him out there. I don’t know if it’s psychological, I don’t know if it’s just he gets to a point where he feels something [that] he’s so scarred from being hurt so many times that he just backs off. But I think he’s going to have to get over that hump at some point and pitch through some pain or realize what the difference is between being hurt and really being hurt.

We all knew this would happen, didnt we?

We all knew this would happen, didn't we?

The obstacle to Blue Jays fans falling in love with Burnett during his stint in Toronto was always a feeling that he was holding something back, that he had greatness within him but was scared to unleash it. Last year when he finally started showing us what he was capable of doing (in a contract year), you could see the thawing process. He got a standing ovation after pitching what would turn out to be his last home game. Then he cut and run to the highest bidder.

With all that in mind, though, it should be a great pitching duel. My own baseball season gets underway at 9pm tonight, so I’m a little pissed that I’ll miss everything after the 3rd or 4th inning (maybe I can translate that anger into a couple of dingers for a Gargoyle victory). However, I hope the Jays bats will feast on his 5.26 E.R.A. and have the game in hand, and A.J. hitting the showers, before I have to leave.

The Rosin Bag: Toronto Blue Jays Forecast

Friday, April 03rd, 2009 | Author: Ottawa Sports Guy

Doom and gloom abounds when sifting through the piles of MLB previews and predictions concerning your 2009 Toronto Blue Jays. The obvious steps backwards taken by the franchise are easy to point out: losing A.J. Burnett, Shaun Marcum out for the year, Dustin McGowan doubtful in his ability contribute this year, two rookies in the starting rotation, no free agent activity to speak of…yup, that’s the easy part.

The front office has announced that they’re working towards contending – in 2010. The media has done a bang-up job of toeing the company line, predicting a dire 2009 season. Most outlets predict a finish no better than 4th place in the American League East. With the Rays, Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles rounding out the division, I can see the logic in that.

So with no expectations and such dire predictions to live up to, where are we really?

Pitching:

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 Blue Jays starting rotation:

1. Roy Halladay
2. David Purcey
3. Jesse Litsch
4. Ricky Romero
5. Scott Richmond

Although this does seem like the Jays are going into the season light on arms, it’s not all that bad according to Batter’s Box. Reading his post really lifted my spirits concerning this starting grid, and if things work out with just one of the youngsters, the Jays shouldn’t be too far off of what they were in 2008.

The bullpen poses a lot of questions, mind you. Jeremy Accardo was just sent down to the minors and B.J. Ryan hasn’t been able to hit any higher than 87 m.p.h. on the radar gun in Florida. Cito has actually begun musing about using Scott Downs in the closer role. Brandon League has had a fantastic Spring and Casey Janssen should be back to 100% after suffering through injuries. Jason Frasor is what he is, and the rest of the cast should be shuttling back and forth between Toronto and Las Vegas.

I get the feeling that watching the Jays pitch this summer will be anything but dull. How Brad Arnsberg manages the arms will be fun to monitor, and if one of the youngsters emerges as a stud we could be in for a heck of a fun ride.

Hitting:

Here’s what I’ve got for a batting order this year:

1. Aaron Hill
2. Adam Lind
3. Alex Rios
4. Vernon Wells
5. Scott Rolen
6. Travis Snider
7. Lyle Overbay
8. Rod Barajas
9. Marco Scutaro

The Jays were near the basement in offense last season. Should a few “if’s” come through, it will be fairly easy to surpass last year’s numbers. The “if’s” are the following:

- if Aaron Hill overcomes his concussion to return to 2007 form;
- if Adam Lind continues to improve;
- if Scott Rolen stays healthy and re-emerges as a slugging 3rd baseman;
- if Travis Snider is as good as advertised;
- if Lyle Overbay can start hitting doubles again;

If none of these happen, we have the 2008 Jays offense; nothing lost, nothing gained. If however some of these “if’s” pull through, we’ve got something to cheer about it. It means the Jays can score more than one or two runs in support of Halladay. It means the young pitching staff can pitch with a lead on occasion. It means Wells and Rios can start taking more risks on the basepaths.

It means; a better offensive ball club than last year.

My advice to Jays fans watching their team this year is this; enjoy watching these young kids develop. It’s going to be a hell of treat to watch Purcey, Lind, Snider and Romero come of age. Sprinkle a little greatness with Halladay, Wells and Rios and you’ve got a compelling product to follow. Some days will be frustrating, as stupid mistakes are inevitable with such a young team. But whatever you do, don’t get down on these guys. Cito Gaston and Gene Tenace are going to work this bunch into a hitting powerhouse, and by the end of the season we’ll have no trouble imagining a pennant in 2010.

My prediction for 2009? 84 wins and 3rd place in the division. That’s right, only two wins less than last year. That’s how much I think we’ve improved on offense, and I don’t think we’re as terrible on the mound as some are saying. The Yankees are nowhere near as good as advertised, and will miss the playoffs; they’re the team the Blue Jays will beat for 3rd place.

Can’t wait until Monday.